A new generation of leaders emerge
Wed, November 05 2003

The retirement of Malaysia's outspoken prime minister Mahathir Mohamad has left Southeast Asia without a regional statesman.

The vacancy comes at a time of sweeping political makeovers across East Asia, where a new generation of leaders is taking charge.

Over the next 18 months, presidential or parliamentary elections are expected to take place in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia. Singapore is also preparing for a leadership change.

The changes are positive developments, but the speed and scope of the transitions at a time of political, economic and socio-cultural uncertainties is keeping political pundits in a tizzy.

While Malaysia's maturity shone through with the carefully orchestrated handover, the question is will the leadership changes in the neighbouring nations set off political turmoil or worst still violent upheaval in an already troubled world.

Not so says the World Bank.

In a recent report the World Bank said that: "instead of creating major tensions, the many elections and political transitions in the region over the next 18 months will tend to strengthen overall political legitimacy and stability."

Lets hope the World Bank is right. Mahathir's departure, which he announced 16 months ago, was peaceful, in contrast to the bloody ends of the reigns of Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines and General Suharto of Indonesia, two other strongmen of his era.

During his 22 years as prime minister, Asia's longest serving leader, oversaw a remarkable transformation of a nation which by all accounts is a welcomed alternative to the extremism in much of the world.

Mahathir, Marcos, Suharto and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, who stepped down as prime minister 13 year ago but remains as the island republic's senior minister, belong to a political generation whose policies were shaped by a colonial hangover.

They ruled domestically with an iron fist suppressing freedoms not unlike what we see in post 9/11 America.

But today this generation has been replaced by a different breed of younger leaders like Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, 54, Philippine President Gloria Arroyo, 56, and Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, 56.

In Singapore, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, 62, has declared plans to step down by 2005 or earlier in favour of his deputy Lee Hsien Loong, 51, son of Lee Kuan Yew.

In Northeast Asia, the new generation includes Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, 52, South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun, 57, and China's President Hu Jintao, 60, and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, 61.

Come 2004 Taiwan's presidential polls will be held in March.

Indonesia and South Korea will hold parliamentary elections in April and the Philippines will vote for its president in May.

In July, Indonesia will hold its first-ever direct presidential election. A run-off poll would be held in September if no candidate secured at least 51 per cent of the total vote in the first round.

South Korea's embattled President Roh has put his job on the line in an unprecedented referendum on his rule in December following a graft scandal, and vowed to step down if the vote goes against him.

Hong Kong's Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, 66, who was handpicked by Beijing since the end of British rule in 1997, is under pressure from pro-democracy groups demanding direct elections for the leader of the territory.

While Mahathir constantly took on the West, his patriarchal leadership led to a consensual style of rule in the region which enabled neighbouring nations, especially those in the ASEAN grouping, to set aside differences.

It is too soon to say how Asia will fare with all the changes over the next 18 months.

But the new breed of Asian leaders will be well advised to remember that the hallmark of a great statesman is not how he or she came to power.

It is how they leave it.